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“I have been consistently surprised at the resilience of consumer spending,” Christopher Waller, an influential member of the Fed’s board, said in a speech this month. “The acceleration of consumer spending on experiences (has) propelled us towards another outstanding quarter,” said CEO Jason Liberty. Wealthier households, in particular, have enjoyed substantial growth in home values and stock portfolios, which are likely juicing their spending. Spending on the bank's credit and debit cards by households with incomes below $50,000 has risen faster than spending by higher-earning clients. “Consumer spending across all segments from high to low has remained stable since March."

Persons: —, they've, ” Christopher Waller, ”, Jason Liberty, “, Tim Duy, they're, Julia Pollak, Sarah Wolfe, Morgan Stanley, Small, Bret Csencsitz, Aditya Bhave, Valerie Zaffina, Zaffina, Bhave, Biden, Christopher Suh, ___ Organizations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Federal Reserve, Royal Caribbean Group, Travelers, ZipRecruiter, Fed, Gotham, Bank of America, Visa Locations: U.S, New York City, COVID, Ramsey , New Jersey, I’m, Washington, New York

What they likely won't be changing: Keeping one more rate hike on the table. Given that rosier picture, Luzzetti - like most analysts polled by Reuters - says Fed policymakers probably won't lift the policy rate any further. Many other economists also expect Fed policymakers to signal fewer rate cuts next year. That's only a touch higher than the 3.2% rate the Fed had expected to see at the end of this year. Reuters GraphicsIf progress towards the Fed's 2% goal slows next year though, as many economists forecast, that may mean fewer interest rate cuts next year.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, won't, Matthew Luzzetti, Luzzetti, Tim Duy, Duy, That's, Loretta Mester, Kathy Bostjancic, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Fed, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, China

☆ I don't think we are close to a deflationary episode, says SGH Macro Advisors' Tim Duy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI don't think we are close to a deflationary episode, says SGH Macro Advisors' Tim DuyTim Duy, SGH Macro Advisors chief U.S. economist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the upcoming symposium in Jackson Hole, the Fed's next moves, disinflation and more.

Persons: Tim Duy Tim Duy Organizations: Advisors Locations: Jackson

An additional quarter-percentage-point rate increase, whether at the Fed's Sept. 19-20 meeting or later in the year, would be marginal in its macroeconomic impact, a small addition to the 5.25 percentage points the Fed has added to its policy rate over the 16 months ending in July. 'MIXED MESSAGING'The minutes include references to how officials assess the economy, the likely path of inflation, appropriate monetary policy, and the chief risks to policymakers' outlook. The core PCE index fell in June to 4.1% from 4.6% in May, a fact only released after the Fed meeting, though economists expected the decline. Since the July meeting, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker has joined Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic in saying no more rate increases were needed. If market interest rates "break higher ... the Fed is going to have a problem.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Andrew Hollenhorst, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, John Williams, Tim Duy, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Fed, Citi, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, New York Fed, Market Committee, Macro, Thomson Locations: U.S

"Financial markets have consistently front-run the Fed ... That has already eased credit conditions and could stoke an acceleration in growth." Reuters GraphicsBALANCING RISKSIn the six weeks since their June 13-14 meeting, Fed policymakers have digested data offering a mirror image of what they faced a year ago. Signs of a slowdown are there, to be sure, and some policymakers expect more weakness is coming - an argument for caution in considering further rate increases. Still, unless there's a sharp drop in activity soon, it could mean Fed officials have underestimated the economy's strength and may become doubtful about the prospect of a continued decline in inflation. That will likely keep the door open to more rate increases - for now.

Persons: Diane Swonk, Jerome Powell, That's, Tim Duy, Duy, Powell, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, KPMG, stoke, Reuters, Fed, Atlanta Fed, SGH Macro, Thomson Locations: U.S

He said in the statement released by the St. Louis Fed that the regional bank "is well-positioned for ongoing success and impact." The St. Louis Fed said Kathleen O'Neill Paese, the regional bank's first vice president and chief operating officer, will act as interim president. The regional bank said its search committee will look nationally for a new leader, noting that its search will be "robust, transparent, fair and inclusive." While they operate under the oversight of the Board of Governors in Washington, regional Fed banks are quasi-private institutions technically owned by member banks. With Bullard's exit, there will be two unfilled regional Fed bank slots.

Persons: James Bullard, Bullard, Louis Fed, Mitchell, Daniels, Jr, doesn't, Tim Duy, Duy, Derek Tang, LH Meyers, Wrightson ICAP, Kathleen Bostjancic, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, Louis Fed's, Esther George, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: Louis Federal Reserve, U.S, Purdue, St, School of Business, Federal, Macro, Fed, Purdue University, Minneapolis Fed, Nationwide, Brookings Institution, Governors, Kansas City Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: Indiana, St, Washington

☆ Fed meeting minutes to offer clues on future rate hike appetite
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

July 5 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve meeting minutes from the June policy gathering to be released on Wednesday are likely to show an active debate among policymakers who still on balance appear inclined to support more action to tame inflation. The meeting minutes, due at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), will arrive after U.S. central bank officials have spent the last three weeks following the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting sketching out their policy outlooks. “Although policy is restrictive, it's not, it may not be restrictive enough and it has not been restrictive for long enough," which keeps alive prospects for more increases, Powell said. It stood at near zero levels in March 2022 and has risen swiftly as Fed officials have sought to tame the worst levels of inflation in decades. The meeting minutes will also add details about what officials and their staff expect for the economy, and some are watching the central bank staff's view with particular interest.

Persons: Jerome Powell, “, Powell, Raphael Bostic, ”, Tim Duy, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Macro, Thomson Locations: Portugal

☆ A mixed economic data picture could point toward another Fed rate hike, says SGH's Tim Duy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA mixed economic data picture could point toward another Fed rate hike, says SGH's Tim DuyTim Duy, SGH Macro Advisors, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss the upcoming CPI report, what could be ahead for the Federal Reserve, and more.

Persons: Tim Duy Tim Duy Organizations: Federal Reserve

"The risks of doing too much or doing too little are becoming more balanced and our policy adjusted to reflect that," Powell said. Ahead of a June 13-14 policy meeting "we haven't made any decisions about the extent to which additional policy firming will be appropriate." U.S. policymakers remain on the fence about their upcoming rate decision, and Powell's appearance on Friday was a moment that could have provided clarity. But the central bank will still receive important jobs and inflation data in coming weeks that could sway the debate. If an actual U.S. debt default is the result, the central bank may even be pushed towards emergency steps to ease the burden on the economy.

WASHINGTON, May 19 (Reuters) - Wall Street, small businesses and potential homebuyers may all breath a sigh of relief if the Federal Reserve chooses not to raise interest rates at its policy meeting next month, as many traders and analysts expect. If an actual U.S. debt default is the result, the central bank may even be pushed towards emergency steps to ease the burden on the economy. "I would say it was a pause, but a pause could be a 'skip,' or it could be a hold," Bostic said. Data on inflation, jobs, and the banking industry since then have done little to clarify the situation, with nothing seeming to change very fast. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ As Fed meeting looms, economists see central bank balance sheet in new light
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

BIG NUMBERSFed numbers showed the speed of the shift to a new balance sheet reality. Fed holdings peaked at just shy of $9 trillion last summer. The details of Fed holdings matters greatly in terms of understanding Fed balance sheet dynamics, analysts say. Benson Durham, head of global policy at Piper Sandler, said the key is the composition and not the size of Fed holdings. One factor limiting economists’ interpretation of the balance sheet surge is the fluidity of the factors now driving it.

☆ Uncertainty reigns as Fed mulls whether to raise interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"I don't think the Fed has any good options here," said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors. "The risk is allowing inflation to become even more embedded versus the risk of aggravating a broader banking crisis." The investment bank then expects three more 25 basis point hikes in May, June, and July, with the policy rate peaking in the 5.25-5.5% range. "We think Fed officials will therefore share our view that stress in the banking system remains the most immediate concern for now." Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Uncertainty reigns as Fed considers interest rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. central bank will begin its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday as policymakers consider whether still too-hot inflation merits an interest rate hike or whether turmoil in financial markets outstrips those concerns. "I don't think the Fed has any good options here," said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors. Prices of Fed funds futures reflected a roughly 70% probability of a quarter-percentage point rate hike on Monday versus about a 30% chance of no change, a slight firming in expectations compared to the end of last week. The tumult has occurred during the central bank's premeeting blackout period that prevents officials from offering public clarity on their assessment of the situation. The investment bank then expects three more 25 basis point hikes in May, June, and July, with the policy rate peaking in the 5.25-5.5% range.

"We have two or three more very important data releases to analyze before the time of the FOMC meeting," Powell told the Senate Banking panel Tuesday. "Powell didn’t open the door to a 50-basis-point rate hike without intending to follow through with that outcome at the March FOMC meeting," Duy said. The Fed's rate hikes are designed to slow demand and spending by consumers and businesses. The survey will next publish on the Friday before the Fed meeting, and could again prove key. If inflation continues, Powell said Tuesday, at some point both individuals and businesses "will come to expect high inflation, and that will make it more self-perpetuating."

He noted that a process of "disinflation" seemed to be taking hold so far without throwing employment off course - a hoped-for outcome if it can continue but one that might prove unsustainable if job growth doesn't slow. The full impact of the Fed's already-anticipated rate increases still has not been felt on the economy, meaning the current strength in the job market and elsewhere may in fact begin to wane, Kamin said. Though job growth has remained remarkably strong, the economy is by many estimates still perhaps a million or more positions short of what would have been reached given job growth trends before the onset of COVID-19, suggesting more room for growth. "The data overran the Fed last week, and Powell and his colleagues are falling behind the curve again. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Additional reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

"It's going to take some time" for disinflation to spread through the economy, Powell said in a news conference following the Fed's latest quarter-point interest rate increase. He said he expects a couple more rate hikes still to go, and, "given our outlook, I just I don't see us cutting rates this year." Rate cuts, they expect, will start in September - a view Powell said Wednesday is driven by the expectation of fast-receding inflation. Since the 1990s, the interlude between rate hikes and rate cuts has varied from as long as 18 months in 1997-1998 to as short as five months in 1995. The Fed, Powell said Wednesday, cannot risk doing too little.

The longer that job market strength persists, the more Fed officials may feel compelled to break it with ever-higher interest rates. "I don't think we can understate the importance of labor market outcomes," Duy wrote. Reuters Graphics'SURGE PRICING'The job market has befuddled central bankers during the COVID-19 pandemic as much as inflation. Early expectations that a flood of workers back into the labor market would ease wage and hiring conditions proved optimistic. Officials then expected inflation to rise for any number of reasons, from the Fed's own massive bond purchases to a steadily falling unemployment rate.

☆ New Fed research flags rising risk of U.S. recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The paper’s authors said that the unemployment rate bottoms out and begins to move higher ahead of recession in a highly reliable pattern. When this shift occurs the unemployment rate is signaling the onset of recession in about eight months, the paper said. The San Francisco Fed research, written by bank economist Thomas Mertens, said its innovation is to make the jobless rate change a forward-looking indicator. The San Francisco Fed paper noted that the Fed, as of its December forecasts, sees the unemployment rate rising next year amid its campaign of aggressive rate hikes aimed at cooling high levels of inflation. In 2023, the Fed sees the jobless rate jumping up to 4.6% in a year where it sees only modest levels of overall growth.

In recent years, researchers have looked for supplements, in particular to data like JOLTS, to provide more nuance about job market dynamics. "When JOLTS came along it was stepping into a data void that it has done a good job of filling. An expanded JOLTS survey may get directly at that and other issues in the future, said Paul R. Calhoun Jr., who was involved with developing the survey in the 1990s and is its current manager. "You got all these job openings," Calhoun said. "We had the unemployment rate, so we knew how many people there are who are looking for work and don't have a job.

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